Nifty Trading .. 4700 resistance breaking, breaking, ...BROKEN!!

Finally, it seems, that the wait is over. The resistance band of 4600-4700 seems to have been decidedly broken.

Readers of this blog must have noticed that I have been skeptical about the upmove - my thinking was that I could not see what reason could there be for the market to go through 4700.

But the market has spoken. It has broken through 4700, Regardless of the reasons why it should not cross 4700 -- NSE PE is at 22, not cheap - or the reasons why it should go above 4700 - lot of cash on the side line - the price action is that the 4700-4750 has been broken through. It will be confirmed if on the next pull back the last swing low 4570 holds and we should all keep that in mind.

As traders, we must follow the market. So, either enter now or at the first pull back ( keep in mind that the pull back could be very short!!).

For investor, however the challenges are somewhat different. One challenge is not to chase price but wait patiently for a pullback, the other challenge is to preserve capital when the pendulum swings too far - the best way to do that is through asset allocation. Rebalacning asset allocation is an absolute must as we head into somewhat uncharted territory.


If you have any comments please write to me at stockmarket.methods.in.madness@gmail.com

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Disclaimer: The above analysis is just that - my analysis. If you choose to trade on the basis of this analysis, you will be solely responsible for the outcome of the trade - profit or loss. Please keep in mind that trading and in particular day trading is not for the novice and there is significant risk of loss of capital in trading

Trading .. Paying homage to my teachers

Today is teacher's day. I spent part of the day in silent remembrance of a few outstanding teachers who had taught me in my high school. Having traveled many parts of the world and having met various people in several academic organisations, I can safely say that I was very lucky to have been taught by two or three of the best mathematics and science teachers anywhere in the world.

In the world of trading and investments, there are three persons who have shaped me immensely. None of them I have met and none of them know me or know of me. But that does not matter. Through their writings, they have taught me over so many months. I mention these gurus below.

First of all Ajit Dayal of Quantum Advisors Pvt. Ltd. It is hard to imagine someone else who is so steadfast in following value investment philosophy. He does not offer the moon to anyone and in fact all his writing is about how you can protect yourself against the those who will offer you the moon. The most important thing I have learned from him : Think of the downside before and when you think of the upside.

Next on my list is Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends. Here is a very talented trader who is also so very down to earth. And so generous in sharing his learnings with so many of us. The most important things I have learned from him are - Market is bigger than any analysis ( including his own ) ; The trend is intact until it is broken ( i.e. do not anticipate end of a trend); Focus on following a disciplined strategy rather than focusing on making the correct call is what works in trading.

The third one is Brett Steenberger. His copious writing on many facets on trading has been tremendously helpful. But particularly his tips on monitoring own trades and identifying and anlysing failure and success patterns have made me much more aware of my own self as a trader.

All the three above have this tremendous ability - like so many great teachers - to distil the essence of any idea to simple words, and in doing so they simjulataneously display a great humility and a sense of service to others.

To you, my teachers, I offer my salute and my most profound respect.