Trading the Market: Methods in Madness

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Easy ways to make money? ... Just subscribe to sms service?

I have been somewhat irregular in the last ten days. Several distractions on the family front, professional fronts etc. etc.

In the mean while, I have been catching up with my reading.

One of the things that strike me is the number of "sms" "yahoo messenger" and "email" services that has come up for intraday trading. Here is a partial list:

  • www.SnpNifty.com
  • www.calloptionputoption.com
  • www.technicaltrends.com
  • www.investinshare.com
  • www.onlyprofitsnoloss.in
  • www.eqwise.in
  • stockmaniacs.blogspot.com
  • www.kalpataru.org
  • www.buzzingstreet.com
At the very outset, I am recommending neither for nor against any of the above. However, nothing wrong in trying to understand these offerings in greater detail.

Now most of these claim to have a success rate of 85-90%. And the ads are very inviting, and go something along the following lines: " earn 5000 per day" !! or "10,000 to 250,000 in a few moths!!!!" Then there are a few who do not claim such outlandish claim and are quite sober in the offering of their service.

Before we get carried away, lets us revisit the old saying that if something is too good to be true, it probably is!!!! For example, here is a fallacy with the claim of upto market calls with 90% accuracy. It does not talk about what the average profit and average loss amounts. And here is the eye opener: Suppose you have 80% success rate with average profit of 1% ( this is quite a high percentage for day trading, I think becuase this impliues that your average nifty point earnings are 40 points or so !!!). and you have just 5% average loss for the 20% loss making trades. Then your expectancy is 1x.8-5x.2= -.2 which means that you are going to go bankrupt!!!

I had tried afew of the services myself. I have not found it easy to follow them. For one thing, there is always a lag between the "call" and the market price - this is inevitable as the market moves very fast and most of these services are trying to cash in on these fast breakouts - and this puts me personally in a qaundary whether to trade on that call or not.

And here is another sobering thought. Money making is not easy. If the day comes when instead of 97% losing money, 97% makes money, it will no longer be the avenue to make quick bucks out of thin air. Fortunately, the day is still not near when that will happen. In the mean while, 97% will keep losing money - unfortunately I am still in that group.

So, why am I still in the loss making category? Several reasons, poor disciipline being one of them. However, right now I am paying tution to the market rather than to a call maker and I hope I will come out having learnt something rather than the lesson of how to execute a trade after receiving a sms.

However, to each his own. If you do not have the time to learn, then by all means, use such a service but take them with a great pinch of salt.

If you have any comments please write to me at stockmarket.methods.in.madness@gmail.com

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Disclaimer: The above analysis is just that - my analysis. If you choose to trade on the basis of this analysis, you will be solely responsible for the outcome of the trade - profit or loss. Please keep in mind that trading and in particular day trading is not for the novice and there is significant risk of loss of capital in trading

1 comment:

  1. Good article. If i were to charge for tips @student then i would be a millionaire in just 5 months March-July!!! Work hard with your knowledge and share your wisdom free of cost to make the world a better place!!!

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