Trading the Market: Methods in Madness

Monday, July 27, 2009

Trading Nifty - Dealing with Monday AND Reliance - 27 Jul 2009

I always find it difficult to trade on Monday mornings. I mean the world has had chance to review and plan their moves for two days. I feel intimidated with a feeling like being me vs. the world on Monday morning. This may not be logical or whatever, but that is just me.

And I have realized that trading is such an individualistic activity that it is very important to develop and follow a plan with which you are emotionally, psychologically at ease. So for me no quick trades on Monday morning; in stead, there is waiting and understanding how the world has decided to act after two day's of thinking.

Now this morning, in addition to Monday, we have to deal with Reliance result which most analysts are saying is below expectation and is likely to drag the script down.

Now the question is will it impact the uptrend in Nifty?

Lets look the chart comparing Nifty vs Reliance for One year:



The chart shows that for a major part of the last year, Reliance performance has lagged behind Nifty . BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, in the last three months Reliance has consistently underperformed Nifty.

What is the conclusion?

Perhaps, the broad market will react negatively for a few hours or day, shed a few tears or two for Reliance - after all, the market does need an excuse to take a breather, consolidate etc. but after that it will ignore reliance and likely to follow its own trend.

Of course time will show what happens, but as long as Nifty remains above 4100 any dip whether because of Reliance or otherwise, is likely to be a buying opportunity.

If you have any comments please write to me at stockmarket.methods.in.madness@gmail.com

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Disclaimer: The above analysis is just that - my analysis. If you choose to trade on the basis of this analysis, you will be solely responsible for the outcome of the trade - profit or loss. Please keep in mind that trading and in particular day trading is not for the novice and there is significant risk of loss of capital in trading

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