Has Nifty made up its mind to go down for now?

In my blog posting on June 28 - not too long ago - I revisited the case of positional shorts in Nifty. Here is what I wrote:

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The prudent thing would be to watch if the resistance at 4452 or somewhere near - meaning in 4452 to 4700 region - and to short only if that resistance holds. Conservative trader may even wait for 4200/4100 to be broken before shorting.

Summary: Right now the uptrend seems to have resumed. Therefore, no point in shorting. However, the case for shorting may re-emerge if the uptrend reverses at 4452-4700 - we need to wait for price action to confirm the shorting scenario at that point.

""

Yesterday's price action seems to have reopened the case for shorting. I had discussed the target for the down move in this post where the target was mentioned as between 3874 and 3591. Some more time has passed since then, the revised target is between 3970 and 3690.

Of course the market can do whatever it wants, but the case for renewed uptrend is arrested for now and the down move is likely to continue now.

If you have any comments please write to me at stockmarket.methods.in.madness@gmail.com

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Disclaimer: The above analysis is just that - my analysis. If you choose to trade on the basis of this analysis, you will be solely responsible for the outcome of the trade - profit or loss. Please keep in mind that trading and in particular day trading is not for the novice and there is significant risk of loss of capital in trading.